Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 23.023256 25.062192 27.265565 29.834995 32.763502 36.014555 39.920726
2025-12-14 19.719407 22.476454 25.662870 29.661939 34.610642 40.621153 48.613404
2025-12-21 17.970931 21.269751 25.302202 30.696661 37.889610 47.407877 61.430825
2025-12-28 16.127040 19.632669 24.104456 30.394131 39.307028 51.994679 72.493794
2026-01-04 14.794938 18.441525 23.264595 30.351678 40.960449 57.130704 85.743349
2026-01-11 13.841862 17.617286 22.774904 30.663010 43.096373 63.356524 102.718376
2026-01-18 12.892228 16.686049 22.006644 30.418329 44.271781 68.211406 118.916913
2026-01-25 12.110057 15.907774 21.359980 30.243096 45.481471 73.337821 137.683302
2026-02-01 11.472035 15.275170 20.854126 30.203440 46.878840 79.098834 160.501307
2026-02-08 10.884254 14.665187 20.317865 30.032248 47.985432 84.525355 185.356808
2026-02-15 10.354853 14.100617 19.797328 29.815083 48.950924 89.881410 213.270925
2026-02-22 9.879339 13.583289 19.305126 29.583313 49.836555 95.285291 245.133792
2026-03-01 9.469972 13.151580 18.932667 29.553823 51.195813 102.408205 289.848523
2026-03-08 9.067384 12.705968 18.504230 29.377780 52.232684 109.119844 340.439968
2026-03-15 8.910307 12.638669 18.700541 30.395627 56.077658 124.890300 454.874198
2026-03-22 8.543634 12.209538 18.244360 30.096024 56.859687 132.140655 538.071635
2026-03-29 8.248056 11.879263 17.935136 30.053546 58.252672 141.934230 660.148602
2026-04-05 8.028202 11.660900 17.805869 30.360221 60.574529 155.971391 859.151186
2026-04-12 7.744925 11.320478 17.433265 30.118823 61.447455 165.323949 1054.825127
2026-04-19 7.491517 11.017541 17.108598 29.945970 62.479989 175.919150 1324.546236
2026-04-26 7.273341 10.763726 16.857528 29.906834 63.883451 188.928549 1732.539963
2026-05-03 7.052650 10.494845 16.561263 29.738013 64.895862 200.959741 2262.608753
2026-05-10 6.840197 10.230549 16.257738 29.523858 65.746108 212.920711 2996.182786